“I Believe That We Will Win!”: Predicting the USMNT’s World Cup Group Stage Results
Image courtesy of ESPN.
By Griffin Cappiello
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is finally upon us! On the eve of the world’s biggest sporting event, I figured it was finally time to take a look at the teams that the United States Men’s National Team will face in the group stage and put pen to paper as I predict the outcome of each match.
Avid readers of The Tower may remember I wrote an article a few months ago predicting the players I thought would make the World Cup roster. Of the twenty-six players I picked, twenty-one were correct. Of the five I got wrong, two players missed out due to injury, and one was the third-string goalkeeper (I was bound to get that one wrong). So let’s hope my lucky streak of predictions keeps rolling, and I get my match predictions right, too!
Image courtesy of SoFi Stadium.
USA vs. Paraguay – 6:00 p.m. PST on Friday, June 12 at Los Angeles Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.
The first World Cup game on U.S. soil since 1994 is bound to be a spectacle. Prior to the match, an opening ceremony featuring the likes of Katy Perry and Future will welcome fans from all over the world to both Los Angeles and the United States. In typical Hollywood fashion, expect the stars to come out for this game.
On the pitch, the excitement surely won’t stop. The USMNT is coming off two solid friendly results – a convincing 2-1 victory over a dominant Senegal squad, and a 2-1 loss to a strong Germany side that featured promising moments for the Americans. As for Paraguay, they enter the tournament off the back of a 4-0 win against Nicaragua.
As co-hosts of the tournament, the United States automatically qualified for the World Cup, but Paraguay had to endure the gauntlet that is CONMEBOL qualifiers. The top six teams in the region qualified for the tournament, and Paraguay finished in sixth place. Don’t take this to mean that they will be an easy opponent – they only lost four times during their qualifying campaign and picked up wins over South American powerhouses such as Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil.
The USMNT last faced off against Paraguay in November of 2025, when the Americans came away with a 2-1 victory; the United States used a fairly rotated lineup while Paraguay mostly played their A-team.
Unfortunately for Paraguay, one of their star attackers, Julio Enciso, picked up an injury in their recent game against Nicaragua; Enciso is doubtful for Paraguay’s World Cup opener. USMNT centerback Chris Richards has been nursing a sprained ankle, but is reportedly “ready” for Friday’s match.
I suspect this match will be very physical – expect to see some hard tackles from both sets of players. Paraguay will likely sit back in a low block, so I feel that most of the match will be in a stalemate; the USMNT has had trouble breaking through low blocks. Even if the United States struggles, I think they will eventually find a way to work through Paraguay’s defensive block – they simply have too much attacking quality. I think the USMNT comes out on top, 1-0.
Image courtesy of Lumen Field.
USA vs. Australia – 12:00 p.m. PST on Friday, June 19 at Seattle Stadium (Lumen Field) in Seattle, Wash.
Australia enters the World Cup after a 1-0 loss to Mexico and a 1-1 draw against Switzerland in the recent friendly window. Despite being located in Oceania, Australia actually competes against Asian teams in World Cup qualifiers – AFC qualifiers are more complicated than South American qualifiers, so I’ll spare you all the gory details. Nevertheless, all that really matters is that Australia only lost once throughout the qualification process.
The USMNT last faced off against Australia in October of 2025, coming away with a 2-1 win. Both teams played with rotated lineups that featured regular starters with some fringe options. USMNT star attacker Christian Pulisic was forced off early in that match due to an injury he picked up after a hard tackle from an Australian player.
Similar to the game against Paraguay, I expect this match to get very physical. I have a feeling that the USMNT players still resent that tackle against Pulisic, and I suspect that will be in the back of their minds all game. Overall, I think Australia will be more willing to attack aggressively than Paraguay will. However, as long as the United States doesn’t get lost in transition and takes advantage of counterattack opportunities, I think they can see out this match. 2-1, United States.
Image courtesy of the Los Angeles Sports and Entertainment Commission.
USA vs. Türkiye – 7:00 p.m. PST on Thursday, June 25 at Los Angeles (SoFi) Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.
Türkiye enters the World Cup off the back of a successful friendly window; they picked up a 4-0 win over North Macedonia and a 2-1 victory against Venezuela. In European qualifiers, Türkiye advanced to the playoff round after finishing second in their group. They defeated Romania and Kosovo to qualify for the World Cup, and their only loss in the qualification process was to Spain.
The USMNT faced off against Türkiye in June of 2025 in a match where both teams used fairly rotated lineups. After scoring a goal in the opening minute, the Americans ultimately fell 2-1; Türkiye’s first goal was the product of a crushing error by a single American player, while their second came just three minutes later.
This will certainly be the hardest game for the USMNT in the group stage. Türkiye has some incredibly talented players, including Real Madrid’s Arda Güler and Juventus’s Kenan Yıldız. They also tend to sit back in a low block, which we know the USMNT struggles to break down. The United States thrives when they can press with intensity; their pace, physicality, and athleticism are their reliable keys to victory. The reality is that because this match is the last game of the group stage for both teams, they will likely already know whether they need a result to advance to the round of 32. I suspect that Türkiye and the United States will have already qualified by the time this match comes around. Therefore, there is a fairly good chance both teams will choose to rest some regular starters for this match in order to prepare for the next round. I’m calling this one to finish as a 1-1 draw.
