The 6 States Deciding the 2024 Presidential Race
Image Courtesy of BBC
By John Maggio
With the 2024 Presidential race looking to be a likely rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, both campaigns will be looking at the electoral college map to decide which states to hold and which states to flip. While every vote matters, there are some states where they will have a greater weight on the result. With this election likely to be a close one, it is important to see which states will play an important role this year.
1. Pennsylvania
While this is not a ranking list of these six states, voters in the Keystone State are likely to be the most fought-for in this election cycle. Out of all these states, it has the most electoral college votes at 19. This state has been blue since Bill Clinton, only bucking the trend in 2016 when it went for Trump. Furthermore, the last three presidents have won this state.
In 2020, the state was largely red, with solid pockets of blue around Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Scranton, and the northwest suburbs of New York City. While Biden only won by roughly 80,000 votes, it was Biden flipping the counties of Erie and Northampton that won him the state. Does Pennsylvania flip back to Trump, or will the Biden campaign be able to hold onto this deciding state?
2. Michigan
Michigan will be an important battleground state in November for three main reasons: union workers, Muslim/Arab voters, and its recent swinging actions.
Earlier this month, at a speech in Michigan, President Biden was endorsed by the United Auto Workers, a powerful union based in the Midwest. Unions have been solid backers of pro-union candidates, so it is no surprise that they backed the self-declared “most pro-union president in American history.” But will this support be enough to keep Michigan blue?
The Great Lake State is an important state with Muslim/Arab voters. Dearborn, MI, a well-known suburb of Detroit, is made up of 54% Arab-Americans according to census figures. Representative Rashida Tlaib, the first Palestinian-American in Congress, is encouraging Michigan voters to vote against Biden over his handling of the Gaza conflict. If this important Democratic bloc votes against Biden or does not go to the polls in November, it could hurt his chances for reelection.
Michigan has been in play over the past few years. The state has gone blue since 1988, only switching red to elect Trump in 2016. It went blue in 2020, but the recent swing of this state makes Michigan a deciding state in this election.
3. Wisconsin
Wisconsin has been blue since 1988, with the exception of Trump’s breaking of the “blue wall” in 2016. Since then, the Badger State has been split politically. The Republicans have led 5-3 in House seats from 2010-2020, flipping the 3rd district in 2022 to make it currently 6-2. The Senate has been split since 2010, but there has been at least one Democratic senator since 1957. The state also has a Democratic governor. While Wisconsin has been mostly blue in presidential races, the mixed results in other races could affect the race later this year. Polls put Trump and Biden within a few points of each other, making it a close 10 electoral college votes up for grabs in the 2024 race.
4. Arizona
As this list’s only state on the U.S.-Mexico border, immigration will be a common issue brought up in TV ads, campaign speeches, and the minds of the voters across the Grand Canyon State. Arizona has been red the entire 21st century, with it only flipping blue to elect Biden. Will Biden win back-to-back, or will Trump win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes as he did in 2016?
5. Nevada
Nevada has been unprecedentedly close over the past few elections. The Silver State went blue in every election from 2008 to 2020, but it has been sliding red since then. President Barack Obama won it by over 12% in 2008 and nearly 7% in 2012, but Trump has been making it a closer fight since then. He lost the state to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by less than 3% and less than 3% in 2020 to Biden. If Trump could finally be the first Republican since George H.W. Bush to win Nevada, the state’s six electoral votes could prove important in this close presidential race. With Trump leading in recent polls, the Biden campaign may turn their focus southwest.
6. Georgia
Georgia will be on the minds of Trump and Biden between now and November 5. This is an important swing state in the deep red south that helped Biden to win the White House back in 2020; the state had not gone blue since Bill Clinton won it by the narrowest of margins in 1992. While Georgia has had Republican majorities in both state chambers since the early 2000s and Republican governors in that same period, it is a state that has had historic and current Democratic power.
Famous for being the birthplace of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., the Peach State has been called home to many other important Democratic figures, including current Senator Rev. Raphael Warnock and rapper and activist Michael Render, who’s better known as “Killer Mike.”Warnock’s recent reelection in 2022 over Republican challenger Herschel Walker may be the beginning of a Democratic trend in this key election state.
It is important to note that Biden won all of these states in 2020, with Trump winning all but one (Nevada) back in 2016. This recent variability by most of these states is another reason why this may be one of the closest elections in U.S. history.
