Flipping the Senate in ‘22
Photo Courtesy of CNN
By Chris Carey
Two of the more incredible shocks to the 2020 national stage were the Georgia Senate seats that Democrats flipped in a special election that was largely overshadowed by the insurrectionist attack on the US Capitol Building the following day. As 2022 approaches and many US Senators, including Reverend Raphael Warnock (D-GA), are facing steep reelection races, it is likely that the political split of the Senate will change halfway through President Biden’s first term.
The 50-50 balance of power in the Senate has made for tense partisan divides that are ultimately decided by the tie-breaking vote of the President of the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris. Should even one of these seats turn red or turn blue, then there will be a significantly different situation in the Senate as Biden’s presidency continues.
According to CNN, there are ten races to keep an eye on where the incumbent has decided to not run for reelection, or the incumbent might be particularly vulnerable due to personal stances, past election trends, or the state’s propensity to vote blue or red. These ten incumbents are: Michael Bennet (D-CO), Marco Rubio (R-FL), Rob Portman (R-OH), Maggie Hassan (D-NH), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Richard Burr (R-NC), Ron Johnson (R-WI), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), and Pat Toomey (R-PA).
These are the ten races assumed to be most interesting or the closest. As with each cycle, nearly a third of the Senate is up for election in 2022 with 14 seats being Democrats and 20 Republicans; however, it is unlikely that a Democrat could flip Missouri, for example, where Roy Blunt, part of Republican leadership, has decided not to run for reelection.
Of this list, some will be open general elections due to retirement, meaning that no incumbent will be on the ballot. In some cases, this increases the chances of a candidate from the opposite party due to a lack of incumbency and name recognition. The Senators retiring are Rob Portman (R-OH), Pat Toomey (R-PA), and Richard Burr (R-NC).
Both North Carolina and Ohio saw strong turnout for President Trump and other Republicans in the 2020 elections; however, Pat Toomey’s seat in Pennsylvania is expected to be the most likely for Democrats to acquire.
On the other hand, in Georgia, Raphael Warnock’s win in 2020 and subsequent runoff in 2021 were against unelected and unpopular Kelly Loeffler. Many GOP members such as Loeffler herself in Georgia are eyeing a bid for that seat once Warnock has filled out the remainder of Johnny Isakson’s term.
In Wisconsin, Ron Johnson will face strong Democratic challengers after President Biden turned the state blue again, taking it from Trump in the 2020 elections. Possible Democratic candidates are US Rep Ron Kind and the State’s Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, among others.
In Ohio, the seat to be vacated by Rob Portman already has numerous Republican contenders such as the former state treasurer and former state party chair. No Democrats have announced yet; however, 2020 Democratic candidate for president and current member of the House of Representatives, Tim Ryan, is considering putting his name into the hat.
In all, there will be more and more politicians, businesspeople, and celebrities tossing their hats into the ring for the balance of the US Senate, and not only will there be tremendous policy repercussions, but the legacy of the Biden presidency will be dependent on the outcomes.
