Pennsylvania Senate Race May Decide Senate Outcome
Image Courtesy of Time
By: John Maggio
The Senate race for the open seat in Pennsylvania (PA) is a tight race between the state’s Lt.-Gov. John Fetterman (D), and TV personality and retired surgeon Dr. Mehmet Oz (R). This close election may determine which party controls the Senate going into the 118th Congress. Both candidates are vying for the seat left vacant after Sen. Pat Toomey (R) announced in 2020 that he would not be seeking reelection after holding the office since 2011. The other Senator is Sen. Bob Casey (D).
This midterm election could define the rest of the political landscape until the 2024 election. With Republicans projected to take the House, it is important to the Democrats to at least hold onto their 50-50 majority of the Senate (Vice President Harris is the deciding vote in the case of a tied vote).
In the modern political world, PA is a purple state and one that often is a litmus test of the views of the rest of the country. Of the past four Presidential elections, PA has gone to the winning party all four times. FiveThirtyEight currently projects Lt.-Gov. Fetterman at 47.9% and Dr. Oz at 42.8%. Dr. Oz has been climbing up recently after a low of 37.3% in mid-August.
Lt.-Gov. Fetterman’s race is built on the idea of worker’s rights, saying that “the union way of life is sacred”. Included in this push for unions is support for a national minimum wage of $15 and passing the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, aimed at the right for collective bargaining. Lt.-Gov. Fetterman had a stroke about six months ago, leaving him with auditory issues, but was given a letter by his doctors at the time that he was “fit to run”. He recently did an interview for NBC where he had to have closed captions to understand what the interviewer, Dasha Burns, was saying. When asked about an update on his health, he said that he is “able to serve effectively” as told by the doctors six months ago.
Lt.-Gov. Fetterman is also a strong supporter of prison reform, saying that the prison population can be reduced by up to a third. He sees that part of the problem is drug classification under federal law, in turn supporting President Biden’s recent marijuana policy.
Dr. Oz’s main campaign strategy is to tie Fetterman’s platform to the Biden administration’s economic failures. In a viral video, Dr. Oz is in a grocery store complaining about the “reckless” rise in prices that Americans are seeing for things as simple as vegetables. His campaign policies align with much of the Republican stances of the day. This includes a strong stance against illegal immigration with a wall, maintaining PA as a leader in coal and natrual gas, and understaing the importance of our alliance with Israel. He is also a “proud gun owner” who is “100% Pro-Life”.
In a video announcing his campaign back in November of last year, Dr. Oz claims that he is running after Washington “took away our freedom” in light of the coronavirus pandemic. He said his entire life and popular show, The Dr. Oz Show, was to “advocate” for people to “[take] control” of their health. He also said he has fought against the medical establishment.
The Economist projects that the Democrats have an 80% of winning a Senate majority. This projection gives them a projected “safe” win in eight elections (CT, VT, NY, MD, IL, CA, OR, and HI), a “very likely” win in five elections (NH, PA, CO, AZ, and WA), and a “likely” Democrat result in one election (GA). They projected that for the Republicans, they are “safe” in sixteen seats (SC, KY, AL, IN, LA, AR, MO, IA, KS, SD, ND, UT, ID, AK, and both races in OK), and a “likely” Republican results in two elections (FL and WI). Of the three seats remaining (NC, OH, and NV), The Economist puts them as “uncertain”, yet each are slightly leaned favored to the Republicans (63%, 54%, and 54% respectively).
