The Energy Crisis in Eastern Europe
Image courtesy of The Economist
By Joseph Frederick
The situation between Ukraine and Russia has been prevalent for years. Ukraine was denied membership to NATO— an organization they have helped multiple times before— in 2008. Moreover, when former President Yushchenko lost the election in 2010, any hopes of joining NATO were dashed, despite the open support from former President George W. Bush, former President Obama, and the former U.S. Senator John McCain. Why does a 14-year-old NATO application matter today? It was declined due to the threat of force by President Putin of the Russian Federation.
This threat of force has come in many forms over the years. While one could look at the provocative deployment of the Russian military to the border of Ukraine—similar to events before the invasion of Georgia in 2008—what is much more noticeable is the manipulation and stranglehold of the country’s energy economy. In particular, Nord Stream 2 is an economic project to create a second pipeline going from Russia to the EU market through the Balkans and bypassing Ukraine. This is the heart of the problem; if Russia takes any military action against Ukraine, there will be a visible and strong backlash and potentially an attempt to stop the project completely on Germany’s end if Ukraine is invaded. As long as the Nord Stream 2 project is allowed to continue, explicit action against Ukraine is not needed. Once the pipeline is constructed, Russia can supply western European countries with natural gas while commanding complete control of Ukraine’s supply of natural gas, which would become separate from the supply going to the rest of Europe. If Russia is allowed uncontested control of Ukraine’s energy economy while separating it from the rest of Europe’s supply, then they could make uncontested demands of Ukraine. If Ukraine refuses, Russia may cut off the country from its supply, leaving the country crippled.
A lawyer for Germany’s new Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, admitted that Ukraine was right to call the project an existential threat to the country. Despite this warning; Russia has mobilized more of its military to the Ukrainian border, started military exercises in Belarus, and show no signs of stopping the Nord Stream 2 project. This conflict is not only centered in Europe since the United States wants to stop this project in an effort to prevent Europe’s further reliance on Russian natural gas. President Biden has even put into effect sanctions against Russia due to the pipeline project, despite criticisms of the effectiveness of these sanctions.
The situation in eastern Europe is very temperamental, and surrounding countries may have to keep a close eye on the energy economy in the region.
