China May Look to Russian Example with Taiwan
Image Courtesy of The Washington Post
By Chris Carey
As the Beijing Winter Olympics of 2022 came to a close the week of February 20, relations between Ukraine and Russia came to a boiling point on February 23, culminating in Russian “military action” on Ukrainian soil.
The Olympics, however, offered a unique view into the possible relationship between Russia and the Ukraine and China and Taiwan. As the current situation in the Ukraine is developing, this article will examine the parallels between the two situations, and explore possible signs of amicability between Russia and China as evidenced at the 2022 Winter Olympics.
Due to the rampant human rights abuses, particularly of the Uyghur people in the Xinjiang autonomous region, many countries chose not to send a diplomatic envoy to the Olympics, including the United States.
On the other hand, Vladimir Putin attended the opening ceremony of the Olympics alongside a diplomatic mission to China with aims of realizing a natural gas arrangement with the host country.
Per Axios, this relationship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin is one that concerns the United States, which remains a staunch supporter of democracy and defender of Taiwan, although somewhat still somewhat wary of full recognition of Taiwan as its one independent country due to the complexities of the situation and the Chinese stake in Taiwan.
Taiwan’s government is not hiding its own fears that the current situation in the Ukraine may serve as a warning or as an invitation for China to infringe on its territorial integrity. The strong ties between China and Russia are no secret, and the similarities between the Ukraine, once a part of the Soviet Union, and Taiwan, still claimed by China as subservient, are obvious.
Should a strong deterrence of Russian aggression occur in a coordination of NATO and other European actors, it may serve as a warning for China in its considerations regarding Taiwan.
Conversely, should China perceive Russia as having any sort of success, or should there be any sort of Western acceptance for Russia’s military aggression, China may see this as a perfect opportunity to forcefully regain Taiwan.
Understandably, the comparison is not without its faults. China maintains that Taiwan has never deviated from Chinese sovereignty, and is instead a “renegade province.” Whether or not Putin is in favor of recognizing Ukrainian independence from Russia, it is undoubtedly a widely accepted independent country with a seat at the international table and considerable formal and informal support from world powers.
On the other hand, however, should Russia be successful, it may grant China even greater solace in an attempt to unequivocally return Taiwan under its rule, as China’s claim is much more ambivalent than any Russian claim of Ukrainian subserviency.
In all, the relationships between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping and their respective countries remain ones that highlight a growing divide internationally between established powers of the world. As the showdown in Ukraine proceeds, it is entirely reasonable to question why China would not be sitting by and watching, and even taking notes for what might come.
