Republicans Ready to Risk it All on Trump: A Professor’s Perspective

Picture courtesy of thetyee.ca

By Brendan Eagen

If there were any doubts over the direction of the Republican party after losing the presidency in 2020, Donald Trump’s performance at CPAC, the largest annual event for conservatives, put them to bed. The party is firmly in Trump’s grip for the foreseeable future. 

In the CPAC straw poll, 95% of attendees thought that the party should continue pursuing Trump’s agenda and policy goals, and 68% said he should run for president again. Greeted by the adoration and applause of the conservative crowd which seem to have become his life force, Trump spoke for 90 minutes, much of which was spent criticizing the first month of what he characterized as the “anti-jobs, anti-family, anti-borders, anti-energy, anti-women and anti-science” Biden administration. 

Two weeks ago, Catholic’s own Professor, Dr. John K. White, wrote an op-ed in The Hill about what Trump loyalism means for the future of the Republican party. Professor White, a public opinion expert in the School of Arts and Sciences, considers the strategy a “gamble with history” and points out the “wave of popularity” Biden has ridden in his first month in office. Biden scored 57% on his overall approval rating and 64% approval on his handling of the coronavirus, which, as Dr. White points out, is a virtual reversal of the 61% disapproval for Trump with regards to his handling of the pandemic. 

As Biden enjoys these high approval ratings, Republicans remain adamant about opposing nearly every move made by the new administration. Republican opinion continues to align with Trumpian rhetoric as “eighty-eight percent [of Republicans] disapprove of Biden’s job performance,  and nearly three-quarters say they are either frightened (46 percent), disappointed (21 percent), or angry (6 percent)” according to Dr. White’s article. The Republican plan is clear: keep the base angry in order to boost donations and midterm voter turnout, and carry Trumpism into 2024. 

This plan has short term prospects. Democrats are notoriously flaky when it comes to midterm elections, as evidenced by Republican routes in the 2010 and 2014, and though the popular vote in 2020 went safely in Biden’s direction, the electoral college count was, by some estimates, decided by only around 43,000 votes. Republicans are relying on their own base to remain motivated to turnout at the polls and Democratic voters, who voted in record numbers in 2020, to become complacent.

The strategy has a serious blindspot: the continued overreliance on white voters. While Trump made progress with minorities in 2020, the gains were all at the margins and were completely offset by suburban disillusionment with Trump. According to Dr. White, “by 2045, it is estimated that whites will be a minority in the United States.” That projection is ominous for a Republican party who has made extreme anti-immigration sentiments an integral part of its platform. 

When asked about Republican’s problems reaching minorities, Dr. White simplified the issue: “I think it is a matter of ‘Do they like us?’ and, you know, Republicans have not been very welcoming to people of color.” He also pointed to the increasingly diverse suburbs of Atlanta and Phoenix, former Republican strongholds, as evidence that changing demographics are already hurting the party. 

As for feasible solutions to the Republican party’s long-term problems, Dr. White emphasized the importance of “winning back the suburbs.” Additionally, Dr. White suggested that the Republican party’s newfound status as the “blue-collar party” means that they should reevaluate their position on things like a 15 dollar minimum wage, an idea which may be gaining traction amongst some Republicans like Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo). 

But, the Republican strategy of staying loyal to Trump and universally opposing the Biden administration hurts them more every day that the U.S. comes closer to herd immunity. “When Reagan beat Carter in the 1980, democrats blamed Jimmy Carter… they realized that they had a party problem and I think the same thing has to play out here with Republicans” Dr. White said. While Democrats are often criticized for consistently disappointing results down the ticket, since 1992 they have utterly dominated presidential races, winning 7 out of the last 8 popular votes. It appears, through Dr. White’s analysis, that while clinging to Donald Trump has the possibility to succeed now, the fundamental problems facing Republicans are only going to grow.