What the Polls Are Telling Us Right Now

Photo Courtesy of Bloomberg

By Jeremy Perillo

Nearly five months away from the 2020 presidential election, former Vice President Joe Biden is ahead of President Donald Trump by nine points in recent national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight. With the coronavirus pandemic, mounting racial tensions, and a struggling economy, there certainly has not been a shortage of material for voters to consider as they weigh their options ahead of election day. 

It should be noted that the purpose of polls is to identify trends and data surrounding issues and candidates/politicians. Most national polls aim to identify how the country feels on certain topics: Do Americans approve of the job the president has done in office? Do Americans believe in climate change? How confident is the American public in Congress?

President Trump’s position as an incumbent gives him an incredible advantage over Biden; every president since Bill Clinton has been re-elected to a second term. However, despite his bully pulpit and answered campaign promises, Biden remains ahead. 

A president’s ability to make an actionable change at any given time comes with obvious benefits, but it also comes with disadvantages. As the U.S. continues to be ravaged by coronavirus, both in terms of public health and the health of the economy, millions of Americans are out of work, 120,000 Americans have died from the virus, and thousands are testing positive in states like Texas and Florida. 

While the White House has been touting their coronavirus response as a success and is transitioning their efforts to revamping the economy, a West Health and Gallup survey revealed that when asked how they would rate the national response to the COVID-19 pandemic, 34% rated the response as poor and 23% as fair. The question was asked relative to how much Americans spend on healthcare.

Although polls are not a definite forecast of what will happen on November 3, polling allows for comparisons to previous elections. Trump carried Iowa, for example, by 9 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Today, however, the Register’s Iowa Poll has the president over Biden by only 1 percentage point (44%-43%), making the state a toss-up. This data supports the electoral map becoming much more unstable for Trump his second time around and dampening his chances of an electoral victory.

The election is still five months away, and at the rate that 2020 has been going, what is in store for the rest of the year is anyone’s guess. The people’s attitudes, opinions, and beliefs could shift enormously between now and then, affecting the polls and the outlook of the election.