Coronavirus Peak Days Across the Nation -

Courtesy of Business Insider

By Eva Lynch

While no one can accurately predict the duration of the current coronavirus situation, though many continue to speculate, predictions for peak days in each of the 50 states may serve as the most accurate informant of a prognosis.

Scientists and health professionals are able to make these predictions through examination of nationwide adherence to social distancing and other protective measures, historical examples such as the Spanish Flu—over a century ago—and the rate at which hospital resource usage and COVID-19 deaths continue to climb.

A state’s peak day is determined by the day on which maximum hospital resource utilization has occurred and the most coronavirus-related deaths have been reported, according to public health officials. So, while a peak date can be predicted, these two criteria may occur on different days, and a peak day can only be declared post facto.

The nationwide peak date has most recently been predicted to be April 13, meaning as a nation, the United States should already be beginning its decline. The nationwide peak resource utilization, most notably including hospital beds and ventilators, occurred on April 10, and that of COVID-19 deaths occurred on April 13, peaking at 2,150. President Trump confirmed this tentative declaration of victory at the daily White House briefing on April 15. This and the following information are based on predictions and data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, cited in White House briefings and most recently updated on April 13.

According to data from April 13, the predicted peak days by state are as follows:

March 28: Colorado
April 1: Vermont
April 5: Washington
April 6: Louisiana
April 8: Idaho, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New York
April 9: Delaware, District of Columbia, New Jersey
April 11: Maryland
April 14: Indiana, New Hampshire, Maine, Ohio, Wisconsin
April 16: Pennsylvania, Tennessee
April 17: California, North Carolina
April 18: West Virginia
April 18: Alaska
April 20: Hawaii, Mississippi
April 21: Alabama, Montana
April 25: Connecticut
April 26: New Mexico, Oregon
April 27: Virginia
April 28: Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri
April 29: Kansas, Kentucky, North Dakota, Texas
April 30: Arizona, Oklahoma, South Carolina
May 1: Georgia, South Dakota
May 2: Arkansas, Utah
May 3: Florida, Nebraska, Rhode Island
May 5: Iowa, Wyoming

It is important to note that while each state will reach its own peak day, operationalizations of “peak days” vary drastically by state, with New York’s now-passed peak reporting almost 800 deaths, while Wyoming may peak with only two coronavirus-related deaths per day.

Nationwide, the shortage of hospital beds needed tops 3,400, and the number of required ventilators, of which there is little to no reported shortage, is almost 14,000. The total number of projected deaths in the United States according to the most recently updated numbers is 68,841 by August 4, 2020. However, this number can fluctuate quickly and drastically—up to almost 180,000—if safety measures and social distancing precautions are shirked.

Since the start of the current crisis in the United States, the repeated mantra and direct goal of social distancing measures has been to “flatten the curve.” State-by-state predictions can tell us if these measures and others are actually working to achieve this goal. Because the projected total COVID-19 deaths has significantly lessened since original predictions, which asserted a possible 240,000 nationwide deaths, and projected peak days by individual state have moved closer, most recently including Florida’s, safety measures like social distancing, wearing masks and gloves, and self-quarantining, are and will continue helping to flatten the curve.