Election Update: On to New Hampshire!

By Eva Lynch

This week, focus is shifting away towards Pete Buttigieg gaining traction when it means most to the Democratic candidates: at the long-awaited dawn of the voting season.

Following a disastrous vote-counting error during the anticipated Iowa caucus, the official results have been announced, showing Buttigieg and Sanders neck to neck for the top spot. But as soon as they were announced, Buttigieg and Sanders challenged these results and called for a recanvass.

The Iowa Democratic Party has not yet responded, but many say a recanvass is likely, considering the faulty nature of the app used to record the votes during the caucus. Representatives from Sanders’ and Buttigieg’s campaigns say a recanvass could result in Sanders winning one or more of the delegates that have currently been awarded to Buttigieg, a change which would change the course of the primary race as we enter the New Hampshire primary.

The New Hampshire primary approaches and is scheduled for Tuesday, February 11th. Especially after the disappointment in Iowa, many predictions are coming out about the New Hampshire primary and what these results will mean for the Democratic primary nominees. Among headlines, though, is Joe Biden’s abrupt fall from the top spot, having been replaced by a close race between Buttigieg and Senator Bernie Sanders. 

According to polls all election season long, Biden has maintained a frontrunner position, boosted by his involvement in the Obama administration. However, after a poor showing in Iowa, a recent Quinnipiac University poll shows Biden’s lowest numbers yet. Biden dropped 9 points following the Iowa caucus, and is also losing a substantial amount of black voters to late addition Mike Bloomberg, former mayor of New York City.  This population has always been an important and coveted voting block for the Democrats, and until now has been considered a sure vote for Biden. 

The poll also shows Bloomberg on track to appear on stage for the next Democratic debate, on February 19th in Nevada, which he has not been able to do thus far because of a combination of polling too low and not accepting public donations. He will need to poll at least 10% in at least two more polls before February 18th to join Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Senator Elizabeth Warren, and Senator Amy Klobuchar on stage.