The Politics Corner

By Christopher Motola

The Iowa Caucus on Monday was full of surprising results for both parties. Republican Ted Cruz was the victor of the Republican Caucus, earning 27% of the vote. This was quite the upset, as he defeated projected winner Donald Trump by 3%. Cruz’s victory in Iowa was chalked up to his substantial appeal to Evangelical voters. Cruz opened his victory speech with a rallying cry for those Evangelicals: “God bless the great state of Iowa.” Marco Rubio was another big winner Monday night, earning a surprisingly large 23% of the vote. This unexpectedly solid showing has made Rubio the favored establishment candidate going forward. Donald Trump is still expected to claim victory in the New Hampshire Primary next week despite Cruz’s victory.

The Democratic Caucus was full of its own surprises. The biggest of course being Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders drastically outperformed expectations, virtually tying Clinton in a race that was not officially called in Clinton’s favor until 3:30 in the morning. The final results indicated that Clinton claimed a tight victory of 0.3 of a percentage point over Sanders. In her victory speech, Clinton told supporters that she was “breathing a big sigh of relief.” Despite technically losing the caucus, Sanders and his campaign viewed the outcome as a victory for them. Sanders emphasized the progress that his campaign had made: “Nine months ago, we came to this beautiful state. We had no political organization; we had no money; no name recognition… I think the people of Iowa have sent a very profound message to the political establishment.” The smashing of expectations in Iowa has raised questions about the viability of Sanders, and what it means for Democratic primary race ahead. Many pundits claim that Sanders’s virtual tie in Iowa and likely victory in New Hampshire can be attributed to favorable
demographics in these states. They also speculate that despite these victories, he will lose to Clinton in states with moderate Democrats and minority voters. The third Democratic candidate (and CUA Alum) Martin O’Malley bowed out of the race Monday night due to poor showing, before a victor was even called.

The unexpected results from both sides have been met with allegations of all kinds. Both Ben Carson and Donald Trump have accused Ted Cruz of misleading voters in order to get ahead in Iowa. Cruz’s campaign told voters that Carson had dropped out of the race, and that they should caucus for him instead. Cruz issued a public apology on CNN: “This was a mistake from our end, and for that I apologize to Dr. Carson.” The Des Moines Register had questions of their own about the Democratic Caucus results. In their editorial published on Thursday, the newspaper called for an audit of the results, arguing that “too many questions have been raised,” regarding accounts of “inconsistent counts, untrained and overwhelmed volunteers, confused voters, cramped precinct locations, a lack of voter registration forms, and other problems.” Despite the uncertainties and unanticipated results seen on Monday, one thing is absolutely certain: the Iowa Caucus has guaranteed an even more competitive race. As the first votes of the 2016 election season have been cast, the promise of an easy path to the nomination has vanished, and candidates are already beginning to feel the pressure as the New Hampshire Primary approaches next week.